Nearly all U.S. medical schools (94 percent) polled predict that the 2026–2027 admissions cycle will be at least as competitive as the 2025-2026 cycle, according to a new survey from global education company Kaplan.* This includes 6 percent who expect admissions to be much more competitive, 44 percent who anticipate somewhat greater competition, and 44 percent who believe competitiveness will remain about the same. Just 2 percent predict a less competitive cycle; and 4 percent aren’t sure.

The findings come as the number of medical school applicants continues to rise. According to the Association of American Medical Colleges, 54,699 aspiring doctors applied to U.S. MD-granting medical schools for the 2025–2026 academic year, a 5.3 percent increase over the previous year and the first increase following three consecutive years of declines. Meanwhile, the American Association of Colleges of Osteopathic Medicine reports that 23,114 individuals applied to DO-granting medical schools during the same period, a 4.6 percent increase over the previous year. Across U.S. medical schools, fewer than half of applicants ultimately matriculate, while some of the most selective institutions enroll fewer than 5% of those who apply.

The survey also highlights the MCAT’s continued make or break role, with 44 percent of admissions officers citing a low score as “the biggest application deal breaker,” far outpacing other weaknesses like a low GPA and poor letters of recommendation. Further underscoring its significance, 98 percent said an applicant’s score was important when evaluating candidates. These percentages have held largely steady for a number of years.

Rich Maraggio, executive director of pre-health programs, Kaplan, said:

“With medical school admissions expected to remain fiercely competitive, aspiring physicians need every advantage they can get. Just as surgeons rely on the right instruments, applicants need the right tools to succeed. One of the most powerful is a strong MCAT score, which can open doors that might otherwise remain closed. Our survey confirms that the MCAT remains a critical factor in admissions decisions. Ultimately, success comes down to building a highly competitive application, combining a strong MCAT score with rigorous academics and compelling personal and clinical experiences.”

Also from the survey: When asked which non-academic factors they consider red flags in an applicant, 96 percent of admissions officers cited unprofessional or disrespectful communication with admissions staff, 96 percent pointed to apparent dishonesty or inconsistencies in the application, and 93 percent identified an entitled or arrogant attitude. Other red flags include inappropriate social media content and overusing AI.

Maraggio advises applicants to be professional and respectful in every interaction, honest and consistent in their applications, and humble in how they present themselves. He emphasizes that how applicants conduct themselves throughout the admissions process can be just as revealing as what they include in their applications.

To speak with a medical school admissions expert at Kaplan, contact Russell Schaffer at russell.schaffer@kaplan.com

*Admissions officers from 56 accredited medical schools were polled by e-mail and phone between July and September 2026. The number of responses varied slightly by question.

MCAT® is a registered trademark of the Association of American Medical Colleges, which is not affiliated with Kaplan.

About Kaplan

Kaplan, Inc. is a global education company that helps individuals and institutions advance their goals in an ever-changing world. Our broad portfolio of solutions helps students and professionals further their education and careers, universities and educational institutions attract and support students, and businesses maximize employee recruitment, retention, and development. Stanley Kaplan founded our company in 1938 with a mission to expand educational opportunities for students of all backgrounds. Today, our thousands of employees working in 40 countries/regions continue Stanley’s mission as they serve about 1.2 million students and professionals, 17,000 corporate clients, and 1,500 schools, school districts, colleges, and universities worldwide. Kaplan is a subsidiary of the Graham Holdings Company (NYSE: GHC). Learn more at kaplan.com.

Note to editors: Kaplan is a subsidiary of Graham Holdings Company (NYSE: GHC)

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